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West Lothian - Population Projections

Also in this section: Population | Settlement Populations | | Area Geographies | Local Plan

The 2006 population projections for Scotland were issued in October 2007, and in January 2008 the local authority breakdown was issued. The national projections show the population rising from 5,117,000 in 2006 to 5,374,000 in 2031 prior to a decline to under 5 million by 2076.

The local authority population projections issued in January 2008 show the population of West Lothian rising by 22% in the period to 2031 compared to 5% in Scotland.

Over the coming years the population which was 165,700 in 2006, was predicted to rise by 5% by 2011, by 10% in 2017 and by 22% by 2031 when it is predicted that the population will be 202,114.. Over the same period the population in most areas will be declining. Over these years there will be a continuing rise in the population aged over 75, which, when compared to the 2006 population will have risen by 18% by 2011, 78% by 2021 and by 146% in 2031 (a rise from 8,300 in 2006 to 20,300 in 2031).

West Lothian - Key Points

An analysis of the projected population figures for West Lothian (by single year bands), indicates that whilst some groups of the population will remain static or fall over the next twenty years e.g the child population is only predicted to grow very slowly (after remaining static until 2015), and the middle age population in their 40's will fall, the older population is set to increase dramatically. The 75-84 population will double by 2031, the 85+ population will nearly triple (the number of older men will increase even more significantly).

West Lothian Population Projections 2008-2031
Age Group	2008	2011	2015	2021	2027	2031
0-4	10,801	11,012	11,093	11,639	12,082	12,172
5-15	23,659	23,521	23,491	24,449	25,299	26,077
16-64	112,851	115,472	117,449	120,061	121,338	121,311
65-74	13,331	14,451	16,473	17,929	19,875	22,211
85+	1,906	2,144	2,564	3,659	5,185	6,287
All Ages	169,342	174,178	180,000	188,747	197,096	202,114

Please see attached spreadsheet tables for further details e.g. by gender.

Many councils in the south east of Scotland face similar rises. For example, population will rise by 16% in the Scottish Borders, by 21% in East Lothian and by 17% in Edinburgh. A similar rise will also affect the comparable NHS Board Areas: 15% in the Borders and 11% across the Lothian's. In contrast, the population of Glasgow will fall by just over 1% in the period to 2031, and the population of Dundee and Aberdeen City by 10%.

2006 Based Population Projections Scottish Executive Comparator Authorities
COUNCIL AREA	2006 (100%)	2018	Relative %	2031	Relative %
West Lothian	165,700	184,366	111.26%	202,114	121.98%
Fife	358,930	382,468	106.56%	404,292	112.64%
South Lanarkshire	307,670	323,929	105.28%	336,237	109.28%
North Lanarkshire	323,780	332,508	102.70%	335,791	103.71%
Midlothian	79,290	78,517	99.03%	75,813	95.61%
Clackmannanshire	48,900	51,365	105.04%	53,245	108.89%
Other Adjacent Authorities
Scottish Borders	110,240	118,550	107.54%	127,390	115.56%
East Lothian	92,830	101,979	109.86%	112,492	121.18%
Edinburgh City	463,510	508,065	109.61%	543,020	117.15%
Falkirk	149,680	157,386	105.15%	162,318	108.44%
Stirling	87,810	93,698	106.71%	97,954	111.55%
Scotland	5,116,900	5,294,260	103.47%	5,373,569	105.02%
Source: General Register Office for Scotland

The projected continued growth in the West Lothian population (illustrated above), will require that over the period to 2015 there will be a requirement for an additional 16,100 houses.

In addition to these existing development plans, the Council's 2005 Local Plan also outlined plans for new communities to be developed from 2011 (with the associated infrastructure), in Armadale (2000 houses), Winchburgh / East Broxburn / Uphall (5000 houses) and in Livingston / Almond Valley (5000 houses). This will increase the number of dwellings in West Lothian from approximately 71,500 in 2006/7 to 95,500 by 2024/5.

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